Tensions North Korea and South Korea, Are Triggering a war?

This news hostilities between States. This is only a week since the leaders of China to commemorate 60 years of entry into the Korean War and the "friendship founded in battle" with the North.

But events last week show that the neighbors and allies more often a source of frustration of sympathy today. Indeed, Beijing's cautious response to artillery attack - refused to take blame and called on all parties to exercise restraint - not be mistaken for approval.




"Of course they [Chinese leader] will be angry, but they were angry in their hearts -. Not open," said Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing. "It's very difficult to find a balance between North and South relations with this. It is also difficult to balance international expectations and the nature of China did not openly condemn or push North Korea harder," said Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Peking University, although he warned that patience Beijing will run out if the North continued to act provocatively.

China is the North's main ally, provides about 90% of energy and up to 45% of food in some estimates. This is also the permanent Security Council members, which allows to veto the resolution. This has a greater influence on the North than in other countries: useful card in hand as a regional and global players. But there are limits to how she can use it unless willing to take the risk of regional instability, the collapse of the North, a flood of refugees along the long border between the state and potentially a unified peninsula.

"The reaction from China was not happy, not happy, not happy. It damages the local economy and this is important for China, but they do not have much influence.," Said Dr. Andrei Lankov, an expert at Kookmin University in Seoul North. "Having a choice between North rogue who makes provocations and North unstable to collapse [The first] is obviously a smaller evil .."

China has, in the past, slap to the North in public, but analysts said Beijing did not believe such measures are effective and do not want to damage relations with the North, already resentful relationship with Beijing's increasing Seoul - South trade between China and last year reached $ 140bn , in comparison, that the North was worth less than $ 3 billion in 2008. Shi believes that Beijing's stance on North Korea last year - to increase investment and support shown for the succession - making it smaller than before that it would criticize the North.

"They do not want to give the U.S. military a reason to become involved in the area and it is one reason they do not engage more fully through the UN sanctions regime," added Smith.

In addition, Chinese people might show, switching carrot to the stick has not been proven as an effective strategy for the United States and South Korea. Smith argues that the North felt pushed into a corner because Seoul and Washington do not negotiate with it.

"They do not see that their interests can be pursued in almost any forum except the discussions with China," he said.


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